10.7910/DVN/5W7LGWSchroth, GötzGötzSchrothLäderach, PeterPeterLäderach0000-0001-8708-6318International Center for Tropical Agriculture - CIATMartinez Valle, ArmandoArmandoMartinez Valle0000-0001-9718-5520International Center for Tropical Agriculture - CIATBunn, ChristianChristianBunn0000-0003-2175-8745International Center for Tropical Agriculture - CIATJassogne, LaurenceLaurenceJassogne0000-0002-2106-5001International Institute of Tropical Agriculture - IITAHarvard Dataverse2016Agricultural SciencesEarth and Environmental SciencesClimate change adaptationClimatic dataDeforestationDrought stressTheobroma cacaoLatin America and the CaribbeanDecision and Policy Analysis - DAPAClimate change adaptationCIAT Data and Research MethodsInternational Center for Tropical Agriculture - CIATInternational Center for Tropical AgricultureInternational Center for Tropical Agriculture2016-03-172019-07-082012/2015Geospatial Data10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.03.02410214473104009984354191172694337891543568267692557199858554842966576651348644294141525165application/zipapplication/zipapplication/zipapplication/zipapplication/zipapplication/zipapplication/zipapplication/zipapplication/zipapplication/zipapplication/zipapplication/zipapplication/zip1.6We use a combination of a statistical model of climatic suitability (Maxent) and the analysis of individual, potentially limiting climate variables. We find that: 1) contrary to expectation, maximum dry season temperatures are projected to become as or more limiting for cocoa as dry season water availability; 2) to reduce the vulnerability of cocoa to excessive dry season temperatures, the systematic use of adaptation strategies like shade trees in cocoa farms will be necessary, in reversal of the current trend of shade reduction; 3) there is a strong differentiation of climate vulnerability within the cocoa belt, with the most vulnerable areas near the forest-savanna transition in Nigeria and eastern Côte d'Ivoire, and the least vulnerable areas in the southern parts of Cameroon, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia; 4) this spatial differentiation of climate vulnerability may lead to future shifts in cocoa production within the region, with the opportunity of partially compensating losses and gains, but also the risk of local production expansion leading to new deforestation.International Fund for Agricultural Development - IFADCGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security - CCAFS