Replication Data for: As We Like It: Did the UK’s 2016 EU Referendum Reveal the “Will of the People?” (doi:10.7910/DVN/Y06T2Y)

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Part 1: Document Description
Part 2: Study Description
Part 3: Data Files Description
Part 4: Variable Description
Part 5: Other Study-Related Materials
Entire Codebook

Replication Data for: As We Like It: Did the UK’s 2016 EU Referendum Reveal the “Will of the People?”

doi:10.7910/DVN/Y06T2Y

Harvard Dataverse

2023-06-05

1

Ahlstrom-Vij, Kristoffer, 2023, "Replication Data for: As We Like It: Did the UK’s 2016 EU Referendum Reveal the “Will of the People?”", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/Y06T2Y, Harvard Dataverse, V1, UNF:6:bWI/fW9yge250ReFka312w== [fileUNF]

Replication Data for: As We Like It: Did the UK’s 2016 EU Referendum Reveal the “Will of the People?”

doi:10.7910/DVN/Y06T2Y

Ahlstrom-Vij, Kristoffer (Birkbeck, University of London)

Harvard Dataverse

Ahlstrom-Vij, Kristoffer

Allen, William

Ahlstrom-Vij, Kristoffer

2023-04-28

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/Y06T2Y

Social Sciences

Since the UK’s 2016 referendum on EU membership, politicians on both sides of the debate have invoked the “will of the people” either to claim the matter is settled or to justify further confirmatory action. Building on prior information effects research in political science, we argue that the extent to which voters are informed about politically relevant issues is a key factor in evaluating whether any particular result accurately reflects an electorate’s collective “will.” By applying counterfactual modeling to British Election Study data collected after the referendum (N=2,067), we estimate that support for leaving the EU would have dropped by up to 10 percentage points, had voters been more fully informed. More generally, we suggest that such modeling exercises—accompanied by transparent theoretical assumptions to enable stress-testing under different conditions—provide diagnostic tools for assessing the sensitivity of electoral outcomes to varying levels of information, and therefore offer relevant insight as to whether they truly capture the “will of the people.”

In addition to the data files available here, in order to replicate the analysis, one needs to register for British Election Study data access, download the original SAV file from www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-object/2017-face-to-face/, and add this one to the /data folder, along with the other data files.

• Number of cases: 2067

• No. of variables per record: 17

• Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

UNF:6:bWI/fW9yge250ReFka312w==

• gender - gender
• age - age
• ethnic_group - ethnic_group
• social_class - social_class
• religion - religion
• marital_status - marital_status
• income - income
• education - education
• party_id - party_id
• eu_vote - eu_vote
• x01_1 - x01_1
• x01_2 - x01_2
• x01_3 - x01_3
• x01_4 - x01_4
• x01_5 - x01_5
• x01_6 - x01_6
• wt_vote - wt_vote

f7081987 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:3AQxxI72Ro1VVaq/t5M3MQ==

f7081987 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:s8hnIAF469hVP/xqvY7ZJw==

f7081987 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:opOVkmeikXBrk1TaAFk9og==

f7081987 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:mzMpAJySuVpU43jAt9CIKw==

f7081987 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:i/fFvW+e+OcbdFnwLZPqvQ==

f7081987 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:mz0SpgX/RkHVJuNWjXunAQ==

f7081987 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 2067.0; Max. 15.0; Mean 7.660861151427191; StDev 3.8649305460041403; Min. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:pHeO08paFjCcHzZdlNQsdQ==

f7081987 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:TbugsFNndbrKDVaCItNEXA==

f7081987 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:caXuHns/6j4pLL+0ifN+xw==

f7081987 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:yxl3luj6AQWRhSg+YWCZmw==

f7081987 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 2067.0; Min. 0.0; StDev 0.3283827711462461; Max. 1.0; Mean 0.8771165940977262;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:QSpyonF5wu+u8/7mAR4rwg==

f7081987 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.5000319630324953; Mean 0.5094339622641508; Min. 0.0; Valid 2067.0; Max. 1.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:fct85folPsz9ri9NetxadQ==

f7081987 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.8824383164005802; Min. 0.0; Max. 1.0; Valid 2067.0; StDev 0.3221663352567569

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:nhAHa8mI2uypxSRT6pjpsg==

f7081987 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.5001139101917773; Valid 2067.0; Mean 0.49733913884857206; Min. 0.0; Max. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:my5TZlo2A9Tf61u/9T7TDg==

f7081987 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Mean 0.6361877116594096; Valid 2067.0; StDev 0.4812119456889169; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:5213eLukhwvLIMwxQ5RtfQ==

f7081987 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 2067.0; Min. 0.0; Max. 1.0; Mean 0.7019835510401545; StDev 0.4574974369982773;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Np5K0GJ9p+xbqWhfLduQgg==

f7081987 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 5.798219210043137; Mean 1.0; StDev 0.5741613849499531; Valid 2067.0; Min. 0.2765692330942338

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:jCNOmN/3dKxt9gESHp+swQ==

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01_preprocessing-1.R

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Preprocesses BES data and imputes missing values

type/x-r-syntax

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02_scales.R

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Constructs knowledge scales

type/x-r-syntax

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03_prop_scores.R

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Calculates propensity scores

type/x-r-syntax

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04_models.R

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Fits models and generates plots

type/x-r-syntax

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bes_preprocessed_scales_prop.rds

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Output of 03_prop_scores.R

application/gzip

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bes_preprocessed_scales.rds

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Output of 02_scales.R

application/gzip