Replication Data for: Conflict Management Trajectories: Theory and Evidence (doi:10.7910/DVN/XRJE8U)

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Part 1: Document Description
Part 2: Study Description
Part 3: Data Files Description
Part 4: Variable Description
Part 5: Other Study-Related Materials
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Replication Data for: Conflict Management Trajectories: Theory and Evidence

doi:10.7910/DVN/XRJE8U

Harvard Dataverse

2020-10-22

1

Owsiak, Andrew, 2020, "Replication Data for: Conflict Management Trajectories: Theory and Evidence", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/XRJE8U, Harvard Dataverse, V1, UNF:6:MmAldvvBV/twLamXR89/Gg== [fileUNF]

Replication Data for: Conflict Management Trajectories: Theory and Evidence

doi:10.7910/DVN/XRJE8U

Owsiak, Andrew (University of Georgia)

Harvard Dataverse

Interactions, International

Interactions, International

2020-07-30

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/XRJE8U

Social Sciences, conflict management, Mediation, Peacekeeping/Peacebuilding, Conflict

When multiple attempts to manage a given conflict occur, are these attempts interdependent—and if so, how? Policymakers and practitioners regularly report that such interdependence exists; and yet, explicit theorizing about it remains underdeveloped. The need for theorizing motivates the current study. Using the concept of a conflict management trajectory as a foundation, I develop four models that potentially link successive conflict management efforts together: a cost model, a limited cost model, a learning model, and a baseline model. I then test these models' predictions empirically with data on diplomatic interventions during the period 1946-2000 (i.e., verbal pleas, mediation, arbitration, adjudication, humanitarian and other administrative tasks, and peace operations). The analysis shows that the limited cost model best explains interdependence among conflict management attempts. In that model, states balance their desire to do something with their incentive to minimize costs. This creates an intervention ‘threshold’ beyond which third parties less frequently travel—particularly if that threshold has not yet been crossed in a given dispute. Third-party intervention overwhelmingly resides on the less costly end of the spectrum, exceeding the costs associated with mediation rarely. If a third party crosses that threshold, the probability of further intervention on the high-cost side of the threshold rises, but third parties still prefer to return to low-cost conflict management strategies. It seems, therefore, that rational considerations dominate, as third parties work to achieve the benefits of peace for the lowest possible price.

<a href="http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0">CC0 1.0</a>

• Number of cases: 2679

• No. of variables per record: 55

• Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

UNF:6:MmAldvvBV/twLamXR89/Gg==

• unique - Unique CM Attempt
• precmid - Precipitating MID
• trajectory
• sub_traj
• attempt
• Ycat - Int Type 1=verbal, 2=mediation, 3=legal, 4=admin, 5=peace op
• strategy - Exact strategy type (Frazier and Dixon 2006)
• ngo
• everstsuccess - Attempt ever achieves short term success Y=1/N=0
• lagstsuccess
• dispdyad
• acode
• bcode
• ccode
• tpcode1
• startmonth - Start month of CM
• startday - Start day of CM
• year - Start year of CM
• Ystar1
• Ystar2
• Ystar3
• Ystar4
• disp_maj - Disputants contain a major state Y=1/N=0)
• disp_endriv - Disputants are enduring rivals Y=1/N=0
• tpcode2
• tpcode3
• tpcode4
• tpcode5
• tpcode6
• cincratio - Weaker:Stronger Disputant CINC ratio
• postcw - Post Cold War Y=1/N=0
• igoint - IGO Intervention
• coalint - Coalition Intervention
• stateint - State Intervention
• intvmaxpctmembercinc - Max Pct of Single TP Code's Strongest Member (Ind States Agg)
• intvdempct - Max % of Single TP Code's Dems (Ind States Agg)
• fatality - Fatality
• hostlev - HostLev
• model1prob_1
• model1prob_2
• model1prob_3
• model1prob_4
• model1prob_5
• model2prob_1
• model2prob_2
• model2prob_3
• model2prob_4
• model2prob_5
• Ycat1 - Ycat== 1.0000
• Ycat2 - Ycat== 2.0000
• Ycat3 - Ycat== 3.0000
• Ycat4 - Ycat== 4.0000
• Ycat5 - Ycat== 5.0000
• _est_m1 - esample() from estimates store
• _est_m2 - esample() from estimates store

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; StDev 0.4779731985500622; Valid 1061.0; Mean 0.6475023562676722; Max. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Bq6RQTMO+PnXUnrRn2R70w==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 1706.1053123780864; Max. 4339.0; Min. 7.0; Valid 2679.0; Mean 2274.678611422183

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:P9I6kSxfhMTQRCHcRA/hPQ==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 2679.0; Mean 393.26353116835134; Min. 2.0; Max. 959.0; StDev 442.8124825225027

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:EbNCPm/Q3Ibo5U6d0NVzQQ==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 1.0; Max. 16.0; StDev 4.406105456488226; Valid 2679.0; Mean 5.042926465098926;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:+dtCO58s0jF2JA2RxEl4+w==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 15.371034842093108; Min. 1.0; Mean 17.310563643150452; Max. 56.0; Valid 2679.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Tc7obP47o5IZuihL2jaPIw==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.9469879004279925; Max. 5.0; Valid 2679.0; Min. 1.0; Mean 1.507652108995893

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:CCgOoaO9n4xeUGf5iFV5PQ==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 2679.0; Min. 1.100000023841858; StDev 0.9612733843746107; Max. 5.5; Mean 1.7205673827302677

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:fbxLnNQQH/r3AxraCVSNew==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.014930944382232018; Min. 0.0; StDev 0.12129923101416572; Valid 2679.0; Max. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:90XNM0oF4hdCEAKsqtkxZQ==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Valid 2616.0; Mean 0.3620030581039802; Min. 0.0; StDev 0.48067157607266703;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:P7s71ym8rBLyKHduWx/xTw==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.34694702790133286; Valid 2473.0; Max. 1.0; StDev 0.4760949949319883; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:r2aP005ubeN922FkfV3HSQ==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 2679.0; Min. 2040.0; Max. 820850.0; StDev 294753.3142320934; Mean 250236.83128032682

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:sEy4W5ntMTpbI7EKOEGNLQ==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 2679.0; Mean 249.5808137364703; StDev 294.7533470022303; Max. 820.0; Min. 2.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:2UzQU/7Q3kRyA/2urYIO4A==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 850.0; StDev 184.06049854771481; Valid 2679.0; Mean 646.6857036207555; Min. 40.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:dPgXny3Ohch5gQvgfimAvw==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 690.0; Valid 561.0; StDev 0.0; Min. 690.0; Max. 690.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:g9CRqJODXmUem5WMXfM17g==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 745.7831280328481; Max. 2305.0; Valid 2679.0; StDev 423.3938119693753; Min. 2.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:augECSuUx8QnqNX2zfQ+NQ==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 2674.0; Min. 1.0; StDev 3.688477948590345; Max. 12.0; Mean 6.304038893044125

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:rYzFgRufrU+8gLkTOjIfAg==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 1.0; Valid 2585.0; Mean 15.158994197292094; Max. 31.0; StDev 9.0333843626681

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:oHBbnBr5GjKy1WCyOQ8n2g==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 1946.0; StDev 16.34087685446845; Max. 2001.0; Valid 2679.0; Mean 1979.8566629339307

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:g57QVd+vGImjRIIMlVuKtA==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; StDev 0.45859709316199754; Min. 0.0; Mean 0.6994336569579309; Valid 2472.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:HLq7Jla80xtGI2wK2hEt3w==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Mean 0.9397249190938509; Valid 2472.0; Min. 0.0; StDev 0.2380439418037265

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:+aLxMCegEmgUfSzysL0Wug==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.22805797695984437; Min. 0.0; Mean 0.9449838187702263; Valid 2472.0; Max. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:U0YiDzJWqFZaAeaNw1XTdA==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.17592367511982218; Max. 1.0; Valid 2472.0; Mean 0.9680420711974113; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:qcTvvIeQZd16XHRGVwrtbQ==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Mean 0.5879059350503897; Min. 0.0; StDev 0.492303782536849; Valid 2679.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:zgrsRFDNjKwhXzX+n/yTCg==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 2679.0; StDev 0.389692434212797; Mean 0.1866368047779009; Min. 0.0; Max. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:ISwXWle3MA8+8oNG+aeF/A==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 390.0; Mean 720.7000000000002; Min. 2.0; StDev 355.49167190213336; Max. 1206.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:6oateb4R+J0IeRzwggLKxw==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 20.0; Valid 172.0; StDev 380.0418786914984; Max. 1200.0; Mean 732.4709302325581

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:5v4hJRqp68YHdhuTSEu34w==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 822.2834645669292; Valid 127.0; Min. 328.0; StDev 298.8190219832275; Max. 1206.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:eAUH8kaXZWjiD3B6h/sL3w==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 286.25014268301516; Min. 211.0; Mean 865.0930232558139; Valid 86.0; Max. 1200.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:ORQySYtYu5I3wPz9Ns5xHA==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 550.0; Min. 325.0; StDev 389.7114317029974; Max. 1000.0; Valid 3.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:gPDFe+phh5yIosqUXFh84g==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 2679.0; StDev 0.2644254864250174; Min. 3.80609038984403E-4; Mean 0.2230783948394556; Max. 0.9712865948677063

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:66xJPqXebwk4A55IExx1Kw==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Valid 2679.0; Min. 0.0; StDev 0.4944593337197324; Mean 0.42515864128407105

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:5WqIToKIjlStGoWq3675hg==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Valid 2679.0; StDev 0.47481283095144505; Min. 0.0; Mean 0.343038447181785

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:TrkPMihW4t+IRof00RSWJw==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Valid 2679.0; Mean 0.08734602463605956; StDev 0.28239416400973427; Min. 0.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:fVRCL9CkmoQVXJjrHDiZ8w==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 1740.0; StDev 0.0; Mean 1.0; Max. 1.0; Min. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:B5Egt8BBcv4D622/2J1VgA==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.17292383052351162; Mean 0.1428714365793793; Min. 8.537412213627249E-5; Valid 2265.0; Max. 0.9875061511993408;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:m2Wx9V5QvlXDKWP45MPTOQ==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.4112233981160317; Valid 2452.0; Max. 1.0; Mean 0.37053444451040146; Min. 0.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:XOPqOwYvURo7mpRNL5V5pw==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 2509.0; StDev 1.7450219908464613; Min. 0.0; Max. 6.0; Mean 5.220406536468717

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:SFVxky6NQkSr8ribuktikQ==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 3.0; Max. 5.0; StDev 0.5007979847680485; Mean 4.706542056074767; Valid 2675.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:MXhkhe9cIUucAti1cBBNUA==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.5604050888520914; Max. 0.8516715168952942; Valid 820.0; StDev 0.14389009967053418; Min. 0.17930710315704346;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:TYHXVNDHngEFoyDoi00Nrw==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 0.4563088119029999; Valid 820.0; StDev 0.07969691860577846; Min. 0.13606096804141998; Mean 0.3359445596795258;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Rb2uo7P9+xGqSTX8c015SQ==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 0.028547152876853943; Mean 0.011834413505715848; StDev 0.005354114457686957; Valid 820.0; Min. 0.0023462027311325073

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:MBA8uuLYzaCdm0SyYtuS1Q==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 0.09835044294595718; Valid 820.0; Min. 0.005147754680365324; StDev 0.01954006636071473; Mean 0.03612861556693823;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:TszmiinGMV581NtufIOxrw==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.0441321595101564; Min. 0.004613612778484821; Valid 820.0; Mean 0.05568732194681988; Max. 0.26709723472595215

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:jlOIzlMKj/yuD7nUdCv/nQ==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 0.885711133480072; Min. 0.10202289372682571; StDev 0.16841009336337867; Valid 686.0; Mean 0.5480787770024367

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:WEY1hmNKOhFFmyLspBS8tA==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.34357042642141933; Valid 686.0; Max. 0.47688552737236023; StDev 0.09366668087946303; Min. 0.10690145194530487

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:DPYDOl7oMQX9243Mm9nIyQ==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.01108092036601917; Max. 0.027454910799860954; Min. 0.0013583148829638958; Valid 686.0; StDev 0.005943578019116523

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:pC2SmUWZW0VfvBNKOp6cGQ==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 686.0; Min. 0.0035969694145023823; Mean 0.043045420498307535; Max. 0.131134033203125; StDev 0.026943302527168412;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:qP+wX7W+zLqq9GNAfXmzCw==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.051734808949792564; Valid 686.0; Min. 0.0023418988566845655; Max. 0.3590987026691437; Mean 0.054224456178157486;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:x+nSJb1PZPQOImyFVpmSoQ==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; StDev 0.4701558830680725; Mean 0.6703994027622235; Valid 2679.0; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:zpsnbSkmDN/l1SBmVNU3xQ==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 2679.0; StDev 0.436956501868528; Mean 0.2568122433743931; Min. 0.0; Max. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:O9AfnjFmySjSlDFkvsFi9w==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.08609591052355033; Min. 0.0; Max. 1.0; Valid 2679.0; Mean 0.007465472191116013

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:n1ZSS7BxnFf3Ajxqpg50pA==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Mean 0.025382605449794957; Valid 2679.0; Min. 0.0; StDev 0.1573135925589852

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:5xGGeRf42nhqPxvZOrIJZg==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Valid 2679.0; StDev 0.19585548013244009; Mean 0.039940276222471545; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:wpZBl/49LZIf6RJyd6ecdg==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Mean 0.2560656961552848; StDev 0.4365400200558134; Valid 2679.0; Min. 0.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:14mPWU8PCnu7BKvtT+iQ+g==

f3998067 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; Mean 0.2560656961552848; StDev 0.4365400200558134; Max. 1.0; Valid 2679.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:14mPWU8PCnu7BKvtT+iQ+g==

Label:

Log File for Trajectories - Theory and Evidence.smcl

application/x-stata-smcl

Label:

Replication Do File for Trajectories - Theory and Evidence.do

application/x-stata-syntax