Military Aid, Regime Vulnerability and the Escalation of Political Violence (doi:10.7910/DVN/GOGH2L)

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Part 1: Document Description
Part 2: Study Description
Part 3: Data Files Description
Part 4: Variable Description
Part 5: Other Study-Related Materials
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Document Description

Citation

Title:

Military Aid, Regime Vulnerability and the Escalation of Political Violence

Identification Number:

doi:10.7910/DVN/GOGH2L

Distributor:

Harvard Dataverse

Date of Distribution:

2019-07-29

Version:

1

Bibliographic Citation:

Boutton, Andrew, 2019, "Military Aid, Regime Vulnerability and the Escalation of Political Violence", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/GOGH2L, Harvard Dataverse, V1, UNF:6:7qLHoO6rz9Aopu9HIlmKmA== [fileUNF]

Study Description

Citation

Title:

Military Aid, Regime Vulnerability and the Escalation of Political Violence

Identification Number:

doi:10.7910/DVN/GOGH2L

Authoring Entity:

Boutton, Andrew (University of Central Florida)

Distributor:

Harvard Dataverse

Access Authority:

Boutton, Andrew

Depositor:

Boutton, Andrew

Date of Deposit:

2019-07-24

Holdings Information:

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/GOGH2L

Study Scope

Keywords:

Social Sciences

Abstract:

This article offers an explanation for the failures of US military assistance programs in some countries. I argue that the effects of military aid are conditional upon on the vulnerability of the recipient regime. Power consolidation by an insecure leader often provokes violent opposition. However, because military aid strengthens the security forces of the recipient state, it generates a moral hazard that encourages exclusionary power consolidation, with the expectation that continued military aid will help manage violent blowback. Using proxies for regime vulnerability and an instrument for US military aid, the study shows that military aid increases anti-regime violence in new regimes (particularly new democracies) and in all personalist regimes. In contrast, military assistance has no effect on violence in established, non-personalist regimes. The article develops a novel theory of how regime characteristics condition responses to external military support, and identifies a distinct mechanism through which military aid increases domestic political violence.

Methodology and Processing

Sources Statement

Data Access

Notes:

<a href="http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0">CC0 1.0</a>

Other Study Description Materials

File Description--f3477293

File: bjps.tab

  • Number of cases: 5496

  • No. of variables per record: 56

  • Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:6:glc87aiEEi3YadaO/aqF5g==

File Description--f3477663

File: fig1_coupprob.tab

  • Number of cases: 4511

  • No. of variables per record: 6

  • Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:6:s1PMvDjqkdTlCwDgDhrUqQ==

Variable Description

List of Variables:

Variables

Country

f3477293 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:C7OEDdujNjuvS7vXH25NdQ==

ccode

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 20.0; StDev 228.25992079267965; Max. 920.0; Mean 467.66411935954864; Valid 5496.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:ExheQWBsF5zy8rHXZaLYJA==

1=N. America; 2=s.america; 3=europe; 4=ssafrica; 5=mena; 6=s. asia; 7=seasia; 8=

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 5496.0; Min. 1.0; Max. 8.0; StDev 1.6208746498101336; Mean 3.9843522561862357;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Ru5n12brjjAFsnm9r2QJiQ==

Year

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 1970.0; Valid 5496.0; Max. 2010.0; StDev 11.809991572594416; Mean 1990.9534206695778

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:YCTe2onIykyTVN9kIO1ROA==

coup1

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; Mean 0.05755919854280536; Valid 5490.0; Max. 2.0; StDev 0.30115200362566014

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:WUbPbeM38R+zQqI9cwKh8Q==

dummy = 1 if security aid >0

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0; Valid 5496.0; Mean 0.6142649199417765; StDev 0.48681274419637127;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:cX1282LRpEU5iV/a138iWQ==

Percent of years receiving US mil aid acros significant time periods (Detente, R

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.60924933683344; Max. 1.0; StDev 0.4201846582048278; Valid 5496.0; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:+6fCm2AiVNe/+5oGrUBvXg==

civwar

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.39344831039547035; Max. 1.0; Valid 5496.0; Min. 0.0; Mean 0.19141193595341877;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:UvabCADgiEqXxigTZNHlgQ==

ln_popt_1

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 1.3930512137444186; Max. 21.00948143005371; Min. 12.220566749572754; Mean 16.157848759849216; Valid 5432.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Y/BJYdYGn63kPOYtCF5d7Q==

ln_gdpt_1

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 8.242807646600214; Valid 5110.0; Max. 11.8361234664917; StDev 1.3419399518110702; Min. 4.427791595458984

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:kSlzqG55BHarYSkGI/Qj1g==

gwf_casename

f3477293 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:vXMv+uIEb0UjNNpCLmlvtw==

regimeage

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 32.54927174664345; Valid 5496.0; Min. 1.0; Max. 269.0; Mean 27.430858806404483;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:17d3xeAnvzRVNVG4UjHyYA==

party

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.2731077147015973; Max. 1.0; StDev 0.44559625025436783; Valid 5496.0; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:2EG12A0pAoLLU54cHxgrFA==

milregime

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Mean 0.07732896652110618; Valid 5496.0; Min. 0.0; StDev 0.2671370094974349

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:RENm5qvT2ZImLwKiD6B2oA==

personal

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0; StDev 0.3677562931494237; Mean 0.16120815138282465; Valid 5496.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:mgpUn/ssHglP10ylpf2Odw==

democ

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 5496.0; Mean 0.4032023289665278; Min. 0.0; StDev 0.4905853663122473; Max. 1.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:fGfsITi9GxDbrW3Ycbbz3g==

nldany

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0; Valid 5439.0; Mean 0.2586872586872577; StDev 0.43795367945158803;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:IRdphFUx8l7aWaVuqZp/dA==

log_milex_soldier

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 1.4289649905505968; Mean 9.026852954083763; Valid 4770.0; Min. 0.0; Max. 14.69789981842041;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Mtsb731ZstaXa6TyDQ7jmA==

mediascore

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 1.1308168433487125; Valid 5447.0; Mean 2.6943271525610286; Max. 4.0; Min. 1.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:LdXbV3czUP/pxWB9T4Je2Q==

post911

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.4278904356684162; Max. 1.0; Valid 5496.0; Min. 0.0; Mean 0.2412663755458517;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:1wII7pPgksSICTM7uAhvuQ==

coldwar

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; StDev 0.4972532309018163; Valid 5496.0; Mean 0.4472343522561856; Min. 0.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:0gi4DFbZNBEi4CymGUeWKw==

ln_ross_resources

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 12.070541211668049; Max. 27.030258178710938; Valid 5453.0; Min. 0.0; StDev 10.638144074102746

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:d2bnr/H9K9EvS2SkJuNNdg==

ln_securityMA

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 10.353029478804771; Valid 5386.0; Min. 0.0; StDev 7.235948951807759; Max. 23.004470825195312

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:JxKxdRdDFJQQl0ueYVjkcg==

rivalryt_1

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; StDev 0.49121853180857666; Valid 5474.0; Min. 0.0; Mean 0.4064669345999257

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:/xfEWAF9/29Gx0M024n3Tg==

SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS - Urban population (% of total)

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 24.15757885472221; Valid 5264.0; Min. 2.8450000286102295; Mean 49.359977604272274; Max. 100.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:bZ0578ykTzHfq9Ukr/YRRw==

ln_attks

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 1.13598861717761; Max. 7.075809001922607; StDev 1.53577090620088; Min. 0.0; Valid 5496.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:X+DCoQlwXDZ1/l9/kxwyEg==

decade

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 2.0; Mean 3.6526564774381343; Max. 6.0; StDev 1.1690520346711417; Valid 5496.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:uMx9HQAAg2IrV33TmTBNKA==

ln_infmort_1

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 5237.0; StDev 1.0291100071996153; Mean 3.6429600184806574; Max. 5.442417621612549; Min. 1.0647107362747192

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:UpO8VsoBjspamNzgMK5INQ==

new5Xsecurity

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 1.7880330779850806; Valid 5386.0; Max. 22.575023651123047; Min. 0.0; StDev 4.891905469551224

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:MzgBum/UcopH1sZxZ0AkMw==

(mean) p1

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 4947.0; Mean 0.022475079662845957; Max. 0.112403504550457; Min. 2.285976563598524E-8; StDev 0.026420968908495397

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:oyyJDveBmihs/HafTK22EA==

Pr(successfulPT)

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.020007456656463318; StDev 0.0503758770991325; Min. 3.211718224704896E-9; Max. 0.6942077279090881; Valid 4283.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:q0YpI6Eb66ZKkwkHKVNTnA==

Pr(successfulRC) -- inclues democracies; all democ coups are regime-change coups

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.04147864237312706; Mean 0.012015786506699598; Valid 4056.0; Min. 6.28610996589174E-10; Max. 0.684916079044342

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:0eSqLyTPgA+BNJhNFRfl1Q==

newregime5

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; StDev 0.3647113905920237; Valid 5496.0; Mean 0.15793304221251753; Min. 0.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:lJoaaiGigHhtq2ogjVPKYQ==

attkst_1

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; StDev 63.82161125663171; Mean 16.82155929721819; Max. 1137.0; Valid 5464.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:wVR54jZWxkLi5Pnq9jHJ9A==

(mean) p2rc

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.01351572471723863; Max. 0.09051904082298279; Valid 4840.0; Min. 2.2203529681519285E-8; StDev 0.017137144614190237

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:jCs57eWw9clc3cLEMZKxJg==

dp2

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.03838251807230729; Valid 4056.0; Min. -0.08921757340431213; Max. 0.6073427200317383; Mean -0.0012501980507375425

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:x4oJtRKxJcPJCRP7Tb823w==

dp2Xsecurity

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. -1.0853545665740967; Max. 7.549188137054443; StDev 0.5364996703955346; Valid 4007.0; Mean -0.014378401668341282;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:RCZ0TRCdLcsjy9uCo8mHCA==

ln_troops

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 12.454463005065918; StDev 2.639443183138832; Mean 3.0124231170280384; Valid 5441.0; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:IptNh/Ou3XS/FLn77imM/g==

(max) purge3

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.18612993224392155; Valid 2509.0; Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0; StDev 0.38928907191954304;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:xT45zRslVT+YRiKGqTAZwQ==

(max) purge8

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.35895020269701283; Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0; Valid 2509.0; Mean 0.1518533280191307

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:3u9HK7zr3/U2K5zfTn5rmQ==

Country (Short)

f3477293 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:M2VGMW9oyjjmmWncr0hxpQ==

Fragmentation in US House of Representatives

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 5269.0; Mean 85.37671005298255; Min. 65.74712371826172; Max. 97.93103790283203; StDev 9.553127931376178

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:mJFSb6qUeOnbSvGA7AJvcQ==

prmilaidusfrac*hfrag

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 5269.0; Max. 97.93103790283203; StDev 27.868535769547513; Mean 52.715424863589426; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:f4QQ9UN5gcJIs8UO5QrhHg==

insttv_sen

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 38.70207528241311; Max. 100.0; Mean 55.16087709348321; Valid 5269.0; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:f103l0UHGLFdfy0sQ2CtGA==

insttv_hous

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; Valid 5269.0; Mean 52.6850047894324; Max. 97.93103790283203; StDev 37.30406224065904

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:dtH6GVWMBc/syExfCZrFRg==

insttvXnewreg

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; Mean 9.413035985617581; Valid 5269.0; Max. 97.93103790283203; StDev 24.709211237777012;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:S61rH2sZ9V5FNC1OT0Xw5w==

physintlag

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 4.623658728081667; StDev 2.3396659968244955; Valid 3821.0; Max. 8.0; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:RJJmyJz7g/q/qy0YK2x/bg==

instXdp2

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. -5.357423305511475; StDev 2.412190184203638; Max. 38.574729919433594; Mean -0.09239849522723163; Valid 4056.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:DsZmVq3sQ383YPumuHqH9Q==

ln_attks3rdpty

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 5.017279624938965; Mean 0.3666848982569095; StDev 0.7066400345867656; Valid 5496.0; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:/hIqSRNO2UT9h1IBwaeaVA==

ln_guerrattks

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 1.011672447108849; Mean 0.44442161483882975; Max. 5.739792823791504; Min. 0.0; Valid 5496.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:3huOZy2ZTc/zBwZGgJoEoQ==

ln_terrattks

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.8917501948589551; StDev 1.3859491802632684; Min. 0.0; Valid 5496.0; Max. 6.910750865936279

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:zlwA9pFu9uNdw3fEhC8fGg==

ln_attksother

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; Max. 5.062594890594482; Valid 5496.0; Mean 0.4585047897813581; StDev 0.8035957639736513;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:5gDt8U7Mqqi/5sBCNX1WrQ==

mean9

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 1.309895057725713; Max. 3.432985544204712; Mean 0.09833255315534939; Valid 5430.0; Min. -6.400588035583496;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:x1tUDPXu9ANejHfz8EMZIw==

protest level (mean9) of neighbors within 4000km

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 5331.0; Mean 0.06805468049724273; Min. -1.7213572263717651; Max. 1.6992062330245972; StDev 0.6079182637736142

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:pXZfkk3bRKDGzyjB8i7T9w==

NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG - GDP growth (annual %)

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 3.852437043002824; Valid 4793.0; Min. -64.04710388183594; StDev 6.402749553478096; Max. 106.2798080444336

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:wZHdBNeMwLSWSEneoO8xAQ==

physintlag2

f3477293 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 5.0; Mean 3.4610138667879187; Valid 4399.0; StDev 1.1626544285300642; Min. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:EcnhwHy5ue0+jB2llMyZfQ==

country

f3477663 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:ciYXxSYmmyzw7pqSQAmQgA==

ccode

f3477663 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 229.7459849061119; Valid 4511.0; Max. 850.0; Min. 20.0; Mean 434.1150520948923

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:iFsaQi8yNiaLbuMdpgDkLQ==

year

f3477663 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 1988.247173575704; Valid 4511.0; StDev 13.63929858740333; Min. 1960.0; Max. 2009.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:PcABjNURlsD5YyNnTm3F9w==

1=democ; 2=party; 3=personal; 4=milregime;5=monarch

f3477663 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 4511.0; Mean 2.080913322988244; Max. 5.0; Min. 1.0; StDev 1.2553624786474409

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:ysiq90ySFTZxR8KjjJOwhw==

regimeageord

f3477663 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 4511.0; StDev 1.1527150297029205; Mean 2.878740855686104; Min. 1.0; Max. 4.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:2smQBINYc5ytNfd82ajAyQ==

Pr(successfulRC) -- inclues democracies; all democ coups are regime-change coups

f3477663 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 6.28610996589174E-10; Mean 0.012969036599719411; StDev 0.044713940784507966; Valid 4511.0; Max. 0.684916079044342

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:CklIF/y5+0yXP0B/wU+Qvg==

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

appendixplots.r

Notes:

type/x-r-syntax

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

bjps.do

Notes:

application/x-stata-syntax

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

BJPSappendix_v2.pdf

Notes:

application/pdf

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

fig1.r

Notes:

type/x-r-syntax

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

fig2.r

Notes:

type/x-r-syntax

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

fig2_purgecollapse.do

Notes:

application/x-stata-syntax

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Label:

fig3-4.r

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type/x-r-syntax