Replication Data for: Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: Patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptationdoi:10.7910/DVN/5W7LGWHarvard Dataverse2016-03-231Schroth, Götz; Läderach, Peter; Martinez Valle, Armando; Bunn, Christian; Jassogne, Laurence, 2016, "Replication Data for: Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: Patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/5W7LGW, Harvard Dataverse, V1Replication Data for: Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: Patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptationdoi:10.7910/DVN/5W7LGWSchroth, GötzLäderach, PeterMartinez Valle, ArmandoBunn, ChristianJassogne, LaurenceInternational Center for Tropical AgricultureHarvard DataverseInternational Center for Tropical AgricultureCIAT Data and Research MethodsMartinez Valle, Armando2016-03-17Agricultural SciencesEarth and Environmental SciencesClimate change adaptationClimatic dataDeforestationDrought stressTheobroma cacaoLatin America and the CaribbeanDecision and Policy Analysis - DAPAClimate change adaptationWe use a combination of a statistical model of climatic suitability (Maxent) and the analysis of individual, potentially limiting climate variables. We find that: 1) contrary to expectation, maximum dry season temperatures are projected to become as or more limiting for cocoa as dry season water availability; 2) to reduce the vulnerability of cocoa to excessive dry season temperatures, the systematic use of adaptation strategies like shade trees in cocoa farms will be necessary, in reversal of the current trend of shade reduction; 3) there is a strong differentiation of climate vulnerability within the cocoa belt, with the most vulnerable areas near the forest-savanna transition in Nigeria and eastern Côte d'Ivoire, and the least vulnerable areas in the southern parts of Cameroon, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia; 4) this spatial differentiation of climate vulnerability may lead to future shifts in cocoa production within the region, with the opportunity of partially compensating losses and gains, but also the risk of local production expansion leading to new deforestation.20122015West AfricaGeospatial DataClimate DataGIS DataTiff filesWhilst utmost care has been taken CIAT and data authors while collecting and compiling the data, the data is however offered "as is" with no express or implied warranty. In no event shall the data authors, CIAT, or relevant funding agencies be liable for any actual, incidental or consequential damages arising from use of the data. <BR/><BR/> By using the CIAT Dataverse, the user expressly acknowledges that the Data may contain some nonconformities, defects, or errors. No warranty is given that the data will meet the user's needs or expectations or that all nonconformities, defects, or errors can or will be corrected. <BR/><BR/> The user should always verify actual data; therefore the user bears all responsibility in determining whether the data is fit for the user’s intended use. The user of the data should use the related publications as a baseline for their analysis whenever possible. Doing so will be an added safeguard against misinterpretation of the data. Related publications are listed in the metadata section of the Dataverse study.<a rel="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank"><img alt="Creative Commons License" style="border-width:0" src="https://i.creativecommons.org/l/by/4.0/88x31.png" /></a><br /> These data and documents are licensed under a <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank"> Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license.</a> You may copy, distribute and transmit the data as long as you acknowledge the source through proper <a href="http://best-practices.dataverse.org/data-citation/" target="_blank">data citation</a>.Schroth, G., Läderach, P., Martinez-Valle, A., Bunn, C. and Jassogne, L. 2016. “Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: Patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation” Science of The Total Environment (ScienceDirect).10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.03.024Schroth, G., Läderach, P., Martinez-Valle, A., Bunn, C. and Jassogne, L. 2016. “Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: Patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation” Science of The Total Environment (ScienceDirect).01. CURRENT_SUITABILITY.ZIPCurrent climatic suitability for cocoa in West Africa.application/zip02. 2050S_SUITABILITY.ZIP2050s [2040 – 2069] climatic suitability for cocoaapplication/zip03. CHG_2050S.ZIPChanges in suitability for 2050sapplication/zip04. BIO5_CURRENT.ZIPMaximum temperature of the warmest month under current conditions.application/zip05. BIO5_2050S.ZIPMaximum temperature of the warmest month under 2050s conditionsapplication/zip06. BIO12_CURRENT.ZIPTotal annual precipitation under current conditionsapplication/zip07. BIO12_2050S.ZIPTotal annual precipitation under 2050s conditionsapplication/zip08. CONS_CURRENT.ZIPConsecutive number of months with < 100 mm rainfall (“dry months”) under current conditionsapplication/zip09. CONS_2050S.ZIPConsecutive number of months with < 100 mm rainfall (“dry months”) under 2050s conditionsapplication/zip10. ETP8_CURRENT.ZIPDifference between total rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETP) during the driest quarter of the year under current conditionsapplication/zip11. ETP8_2050S.ZIPDifference between total rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETP) during the driest quarter of the year under 2050s conditionsapplication/zip12. CV19GCM.ZIPCoefficient of variation of suitability prediction of the 19 Global Circulation Models for 2050sapplication/zip13. MA_19GCM.ZIPMeasure of agreement expressed as the number of models that predict the same direction of change as the average of 19 GCMs for 2050s.application/zip