Replication Data for: Tariffs as Electoral Weapons: The Political Geography of the US-China Trade Wardoi:10.7910/DVN/1GGBBKHarvard Dataverse2020-10-191Kim, Sung Eun; Margalit, Yotam, 2020, "Replication Data for: Tariffs as Electoral Weapons: The Political Geography of the US-China Trade War", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/1GGBBK, Harvard Dataverse, V1, UNF:6:ptIntZKQoi1xPeVw+Z95gQ== [fileUNF]Replication Data for: Tariffs as Electoral Weapons: The Political Geography of the US-China Trade Wardoi:10.7910/DVN/1GGBBKKim, Sung EunMargalit, YotamHarvard DataverseMargalit, YotamMatthews, Elana2020-10-16Social SciencesIn response to President Trump’s escalation of trade relations, China countered by issuing tariffs on over 6,000 products worth over $110 billion in U.S. exports. We explore whether China’s tariffs reflected a strategy to apply counter-pressure by hurting political support for Republicans, assess the strategy’s impact on the 2018 mid-term elections, and examine the mechanism underlying the resulting electoral shift. We find strong evidence that Chinese tariffs systematically targeted U.S. goods whose production is concentrated in Republican-supporting counties, particularly when located in closely contested Congressional districts. This apparent strategy was successful: targeted areas were more likely to turn against Republican candidates. Using data on campaign communications, local search patterns online and an original national survey, we find evidence that voters residing in areas vulnerable to the tariffs were more likely to learn about the trade war, recognize its adverse impact, and assign the Republicans responsibility for the escalating situation.<a href="http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0">CC0 1.0</a>tradewar_io_campaign.tab84016text/tab-separated-valuesUNF:6:RD5vcSxg6vekksk+AeiiXw==tradewar_io_county.tab314372text/tab-separated-valuesUNF:6:EQcG2Cr1X3OSBu6d0F9HlA==tradewar_io_county_cd.tab376712text/tab-separated-valuesUNF:6:6wGthErp1yz8SfOz02D7vg==tradewar_io_czone.tab71027text/tab-separated-valuesUNF:6:HggD526qGroka0mz0DEuag==tradewar_io_product.tab590222text/tab-separated-valuesUNF:6:Px5eu22+W9oTP+HAi4Pq/g==tradewar_io_survey.tab151820text/tab-separated-valuesUNF:6:aE1CedBw7YTGeCVU8dHcrw==tradewar_io_swing.tab4363text/tab-separated-valuesUNF:6:U691h23FlI7p9cH/RVVeyA==tradewar_io_websearch.tab2627text/tab-separated-valuesUNF:6:zJEN5TPvGNrrcGoci+WOHQ==State FIPS CodeUNF:6:amqGTv26HWfkh+Emcght7g==Congressional DistrictUNF:6:3vCe94p4QgbX88SttTbolA==Candidate NameUNF:6:gzbUC3/nvCY0K66h0bJ5aA==Candidate PartyUNF:6:R00RJSuQYmKiv7+u9yovVA==Democratic Candidate840.01.00.00.01.00.5250.4996721213394456.UNF:6:qKBGeljEMQxR4d0e128Byw==Campaign Communications on the Trade War, \%0.6791031767135806.840.00.00.20476271361999570.09.5969285964965820.0UNF:6:wKQGoCQETWiA/MQdBC5smQ==Campaign Communications on China and Trade, \%0.00.00.08797902561990277.4.7516198158264160.3589498665256024840.00.0UNF:6:qZMw3/Qqnw7VZo/15eryKw==Campaign Communications on China and Tariff, \%.0.00.071240608318753230.00.2756082200539754840.04.16666698455810550.0UNF:6:cj32+kKKk+Zq86gS5HCRIA==Targeted by Tariffs (April Only)0.00365441967733204360.6257433676975773840.00.196531362831592561.473934961449344918.174806594848633.0.0UNF:6:3r4QWArmMEEQjHVEBVbccA==Targeted by Tariffs (June Only)21.439527511596680.0086748162284493450.00.63393485546112062.0127274223718445840.01.3217430793791127.UNF:6:SPGcuqzB6OAqv6sjF9W92g==Targeted by Tariffs (August Only)1.33617768247514831.12413227558135991.5395985931158070.051180738955736160.0840.012.722078323364258.UNF:6:u2LSWSwlf55Mgfl4MJc8Hg==Targeted by Tariffs (September Only)0.68487131595611577.867671728134155840.0.27.0797290802001959.0815669760817580.04.856917875425274UNF:6:NC7dAn7U0LSbyintKsOZLg==Democratic * Targeted by Tariffs (April).0.32936814494259160.023742476478219032840.01.14372480138219970.00.018.174806594848633UNF:6:yDsn3gABkqi9L3JzwWZ3DQ==Democratic * Targeted by Tariffs (June)0.68287831840570990.021.43952751159668.0.01.59543418628877890.10575145855545998840.0UNF:6:5FypqSKHzcvp9H3GF7oZDw==Democratic * Targeted by Tariffs (August).840.012.7220783233642580.234377712011337281.223100490122590.79623507765520810.00.0UNF:6:MZZZsYLQQiQPiJSPfGRXxw==Democratic * Targeted by Tariffs (September)840.027.0797290802001952.8178362846374514.6946973459351590.00.0.5.682253900318733UNF:6:FKCPhWBOui0JESRc2IHLpg==fipscodeUNF:6:EZba1bu7Rty17qOcicICOg==State FIPS CodeUNF:6:lEWmD3/u5439HZMd9vK0dQ==$\Delta$ Weekly Wage, 18-17.3140.0-49.79999923706055103.09999847412113.03.24175158965455124.39094088292632553.200000047683716UNF:6:tUid3Y3KSrKwwam20716Kw==Voting Age Pop.2.03141.0.102195.5460044570525695.01.010572E7328340.121402086575.0UNF:6:Q3fCd7LgnJlnt2jJ4bOt3Q==Total Votes in the House Election41164.787528126243111.00.0.117252.243269777043129539.010429.032.0UNF:6:6XTJLulO2eA3edzlnZZPbA==\%, Targeted by Tariffs (April)1.134507027884564459.1823158264160160.03143.00.076091781258583070.0.4.135908066813696UNF:6:Q6ZlF+GLxi5NofQSrUCu/g==\%, Targeted by Tariffs (June)0.70518314838409420.091.407577514648443.1014905314171815.3143.06.722142921445580.0UNF:6:2r9BwKsvCc9rr4xsJQfXNA==\%, Targeted by Tariffs (August)2.58744175886230784.7333712909917740.96460151672363280.03143.0.64.613517761230470.0UNF:6:dIwEtgk/dzucRaGW8AReIg==\%, Targeted by Tariffs (September)3143.012.21013832092285215.0157420855042450.011.656976907890305.91.407577514648440.0UNF:6:jKrXMHAdmF7kO/5/MXCGiA==\%, Targeted by EU Tariffs0.72119802236557011.7187624915265660.0.3143.03.32835746385166348.367954254150390.0UNF:6:5hlDy4ArozuuidQpl00FJw==\%, Targeted by Mexico Tariffs59.182315826416016.3143.02.389255315538245.569718234553840.53413587808609010.00.0UNF:6:llt894Nt8vaPhMvxs19vUw==\%, Targeted by Tariffs 3143.00.05.4294886958823617.5742904803779722.8648390769958496.0.091.28115844726562UNF:6:jZ8pIQQghIKXYTDIXXSlWw==\%, Targeted by Canada Tariffs91.281158447265622.1133866310119634.61984643724935757.2207174257820920.0.3143.00.0UNF:6:NM/6gLUnTZmjCdN8j9Jk7g==\%, Targeted by Tariffs (by September)0.016.65658824694336512.06629375576815614.08017444610595791.40757751464844.0.03143.0UNF:6:sdz1QQU5BmCGuDvKgBu1Zw==\%, Targeted by Tariffs (by June)3143.03.26914887530748240.82694345712661746.797064314295070.0.0.091.40757751464844UNF:6:PfY/MKVPBSoUqIP+A2lECg==\%, Targeted by Tariffs (by August)0.0.7.794765316054453143.091.407577514648445.633283018658432.86476898193359380.0UNF:6:PS+7eBuoEUANoWWC8sym1A==\%, Protected by US Tariffs (by June)3143.0.69.52614593505861.6848545074462890.03.619455862595690.05.567326605126514UNF:6:xciICNOI3cB1tSDarDZ8eA==\%, Protected by US Tariffs (by August)4.930089466671281.6.4389034104656760.02.78488707542419430.069.52614593505863143.0UNF:6:SUZsOT7fdTRtme74BfyhmA==\%, Protected by US Tariffs (by September)12.0289216593780140.091.407577514648440.016.6223251404151323143.014.030537605285645.UNF:6:6kB0KNLBuFQNPiiT0/SRtg==\%, Targeted by Tariffs on Agriculture (by April).0.304201892280320630.03143.01.74266540253504520.052.195415496826170.0UNF:6:NGPwkY6JvR6Mo6RNyWiUgw==\%, Targeted by Tariffs on Agriculture (by September)0.088.284988403320315.1939662733226522.4437097550326796.3143.00.75536650419235230.0UNF:6:7KESu6IRimjFxFUT6/EdJg==\%, Targeted by Tariffs on Agriculture (by June)53.3230361938476560.133178144693374633143.01.02941528431746350.0.0.03.0556085420406016UNF:6:b3UbvaYZNieK0Qo2nhEgdw==\%, Targeted by Tariffs on Agriculture (by August)1.0294152843174635.0.00.03.055608542040601653.3230361938476560.133178144693374633143.0UNF:6:b3UbvaYZNieK0Qo2nhEgdw==\%, Targeted by Tariffs on Non-agriculture (by April)1.00.03.665113063263912.0.0204628072679042859.1823158264160163142.00.8305693930436184UNF:6:2I8kJ9qNIvg7GETOtchu4w==\%, Targeted by Tariffs on Non-agriculture (by September)3142.0.14.2174020294742981.011.45567131042480591.2811584472656211.6657146196304440.0UNF:6:Z2dq5PiGRwChxDj45053dA==\%, Targeted by All Tariffs (by June).91.407577514648444.5299849432308860.07.1986414970914680.03143.02.093440532684326UNF:6:pLwgKDqlpYjaz6/iCFUctQ==\%, Targeted by All Tariffs (by August)6.2421207427978520.09.04254668100044791.407577514648440.0.8.9240551418327073143.0UNF:6:Y1w3tJlZOMh9Qxnk6ktFuQ==\%, Targeted by All Tariffs (by September)12.0662937557681560.03143.016.656588246943365.14.08017444610595791.407577514648440.0UNF:6:sdz1QQU5BmCGuDvKgBu1Zw==\%, Targeted by Tariffs on Non-agriculture (by June)2.2404464270680630.06.0056088998258891.0.3142.091.281158447265620.2779741436243057UNF:6:YhpM/+nbreAxJZfG8GCVEw==\%, Targeted by Tariffs on Non-agriculture (by August)91.281158447265624.6053329896034187.21890739343165062.0942020416259766.3142.01.00.0UNF:6:eDLGA/iAXhF7hL6W35johg==\%, Age Group 12.012.9517774581909180.05.8874684222675915.8319721221923833141.01.144454320826013.UNF:6:I3T8YKAo8Y7MD6wkHJesyw==\%, Age Group 20.06.2015587888451671.06398130308769666.153539180755615.3141.02.014.782608985900879UNF:6:nPb+PDWIe6J/Z6XpLHq+LQ==\%, Age Group 36.336073875427246.0.06.33686965504712950.99483494558517043141.02.011.22449016571045UNF:6:yP8cPYXef3E/Ed8Gg9B6Vw==\%, Age Group 419.980245590209960.0.6.3136401176452643141.02.01.14770771427930776.417300402453963UNF:6:s2CEj9IqQWShoJeDZC90zg==\%, Age Group 5.26.9930858612060550.02.36324356188706556.3326254685530052.05.81932067871093753141.0UNF:6:DfNy3Q6Q1S8A7DTZcqwvsg==\%, Age Group 63141.02.27272725105285645.98019156528862355.8617706298828125.15.0396041870117192.01.2957198693030314UNF:6:yPF3BEw3mvMKQ/qeWPQIiQ==\%, Age Group 73141.0.5.85712222095053612.4516811370849612.00.97969622248096432.63306903839111335.740994453430176UNF:6:cp/QrjjJ7oZP8xTZfMxYWQ==\%, Age Group 82.02.60869574546813960.7918544787219749.10.5933065414428715.8045554161071785.8274066656951293141.0UNF:6:ev/BTCYATAqDoiXDhRS48Q==\%, Age Group 95.623408246290833141.02.0.5.63683605194091811.6726837158203120.75680772296555752.0718231201171875UNF:6:3H5YxAAGZ2/LsfoMFIZ1Zg==\%, Age Group 1011.8231048583984380.79473766961704562.06.117254845847832.35690236091613773141.06.142441272735596.UNF:6:wY9rmUrt8krP59YiNS70Ew==\%, Age Group 112.60396051406860353141.00.78447239645978652.014.7727270126342776.8482935260868665.6.881956100463867UNF:6:NeZhQOUZr1VotYFdKR3smA==\%, Age Group 12.2.03960394859313960.96924104042908952.03141.012.1325645446777347.3522677421569827.3324654240473075UNF:6:adBVleX5QwXaH5V3sD1wLQ==\%, Age Group 131.23619487439822962.01.87128710746765143141.06.854409092818425.18.181818008422856.776687145233154UNF:6:cPVHWGKMVKzwo3Wq3/Dxzg==\%, Age Group 143141.05.93165826797485351.3564356565475464.6.0969465151215681.40899310616689117.7938270568847662.0UNF:6:RQz5le9Cy41eLCAVuFQZqA==\%, Age Group 151.184894128352558516.610574722290041.2079207897186284.427125994470689.3141.04.2900300025939942.0UNF:6:wjY2fXJGZsYYLX5bKIsadQ==\%, Age Group 160.52201145887374883141.0.3.2519121874634993.19303345680236811.4419307708740230.92303793091413952.0UNF:6:x3TDzf7JshlHbdg5Vt+oGw==\%, Age Group 172.1972563266754150.69206335320362496.0693640708923343141.02.26536474343470970.02.0.UNF:6:nGNiR6VZ4McZfanbbW5Jaw==\%, Female50.331001281738283141.056.6993904113769549.899148161340692.029.5342845916748052.2588401773305864.UNF:6:ABL57u23sE1E+dOS8FhLsA==\%, White16.3342968942483545.14869356155395599.25037384033203.91.732513427734383141.02.084.8189448452573UNF:6:2ETVC3tOWEjcgxRCL27eNQ==\%, Black2.3774738311767589.2675278880833613141.00.086.022567749023442.0.14.500465745582396UNF:6:RwzfTYBkaaUPQLLWFkt3qg==\%, Asian1.48518613505656983141.00.02.86393777253447150.685255169868469242.901664733886722.0.UNF:6:I1qzEnwVyC0qrHSsLGhmrA==\%, Native3141.092.739021301269530.69921779632568360.02.02.419351267429414.7.649803272098362UNF:6:lOcQW17KYJOZvQ09qgXZfw==\%, Hispanic.3141.013.6953509308784484.1327199935913090.50022739171981819.32184335890187596.267852783203122.0UNF:6:MUNCyOL1/8ous2wTDBYo1A==GOP Vote Share (\%)0.067.5109502894603470.557300567626953106.019.71167398035263237.0.100.0UNF:6:/N6eRvPFZxwssQelL0MrSA==Swing District, 10\% Overlap0.156538339166400840.00.00.363422770123289943143.00.01.0.UNF:6:FoJGIcROrnz2OuyD5J1txQ==GOP Vote Share (\%) * Swing District3106.020.41580591919941491.90228271484375.8.2789991440806790.00.037.0UNF:6:NOPNEnpISacl1ahxNiNxuQ==Swing District, 20\% Overlap0.152402163538019470.00.35946746260628020.00.0.1.03143.0UNF:6:cvwEXJfZ184RKyZrskv3gQ==GOP Vote Share (\%) * Swing District8.075700959772407.37.091.902282714843753106.00.00.020.231987867498535UNF:6:hC5SGgDV3OQwZdfiIPlYQw==Competitive District (Cook Rating), 20\% Overlap0.16226535157492863143.00.368752723645089261.00.00.0.0.0UNF:6:S1uAu72a5muxw35Z/3iyow==GOP Vote Share (\%) * Competitive District (Cook).23.68291735893046437.03106.00.00.094.1157989501953110.194655142978805UNF:6:NKxlpfQawHIApbUmxJx0CA==Swing District, 30\% Overlap0.0.0.00.35447255177280740.01.03143.00.1473114858415518UNF:6:YwyIGY9lxRuOwpxPkXfdfg==GOP Vote Share (\%) * Swing District.0.00.091.9022827148437520.00623085297626237.03106.07.828833988997879UNF:6:dts1yOjoz9QATT+LDkHKZw==Competitive District (Cook Rating), 30\% Overlap0.00.36402329192904181.0.0.157174673878461240.00.03143.0UNF:6:A1iHhTyeNJpQf2isdJTQ2Q==GOP Vote Share (\%) * Competitive District (Cook)23.43748526695165837.03106.00.09.90446466027122394.11579895019531.0.0UNF:6:Ydd5cqh7OrB20eE+tIzDzQ==Percentage Change in Total Votes, 18-16-100.0110.4575424194336-11.228280185550993.35.013.3186594733754533108.0-12.657930850982666UNF:6:gCaVPleM+TXgNXP2Zu9fKg==Percentage Change in Total Votes, 16-1451.795316285727594-52.83860015869140631.17174925011308848.8687744140625274.84881591796875.37.03106.0UNF:6:ZL2yhbZYtqV4oqu0EOaRag==$\Delta$ GOP Vote (\%), 18-16-74.57627105712893098.0.12.48771468458173-4.27346038818359445.051.26213455200195-6.393916307884153UNF:6:6FGyC7vzhe5nK8Oeg6pfLw==$\Delta$ GOP Vote (\%), 16-143106.03.45450656704193371.53233909606933637.0.76.4957275390625-57.6827239990234414.759534913169544UNF:6:Idh40Ra/iOTquPgeiqLH8A==$\Delta$ GOP Vote (\%), 18-16 (Contested Elections)189.0.51.2621345520019511.3485127473533842954.0-73.37226104736328-6.448054602764394-4.19744873046875UNF:6:AVbfncn9x6uKJasqnpDxzw==$\Delta$ GOP Vote (\%), 16-14 (Contested Elections).2972.01.597126007080078114.295098449115343.468616508057792171.0-57.6827239990234476.4957275390625UNF:6:yXsNqZFU4PhymPMmQk/30w==Log(Export)1.6083632839523144.87581901648504211.1999788284301760.0085210315883159644.7802243232727053143.0.0.0UNF:6:tUPRFIf+/WIdl/KvVsIvYQ==Log(Agricultural Exports)-5.4202861785888670.03143.01.2130271654556777.3102984428405762.74749207496643072.5536530953073346.UNF:6:uhSIg2SyZTTIv7qAdMFNSw==stateUNF:6:EhFDjyZSnPzykWqWPnjBBA==state_fipsUNF:6:v2dAa/CYLvcgNzAPy2KNxA==fipscodeUNF:6:t6a/7xVs1BpySKNQHpyJdw==cdUNF:6:eLov/i/G32NCpZaD04p2yw==cocd_repvotes_20180.00.020961.446013497043186037.0.3767.012939.4812848420955268.0UNF:6:Z2heElEW1nBobtNOlWs5Xw==cocd_demvotes_2018312252.03054.03767.015429.00265463219.33190.1932287273740.00.0UNF:6:yrCdywB//DFMg6BoQunlLQ==100.047.066.1625544351733368.8823776245117224.2882585223706833720.0.0.0UNF:6:yy4AqlWnQ/nwWueo9szqag==-4.1521320343017583616.013.08808886165318253.18083572387695.151.0-6.266035293253684-100.0UNF:6:48MSUVgwBhabCNpP8B+duQ==district_dem_vote20180.0117880.1131174987450928.073730983213766.0114377.0329800.01.0.UNF:6:+BHmxQGd6PAt86qYC7ritw==district_gop_vote2018256661.0.49615.841923800326154260.03766.0145986.595326606481.00.0UNF:6:9RWs3DRNTxl7payCwmRB0g==100.012.78481769561767611.7724136907656013767.00.0.15.64868118412810.0UNF:6:HfVcQlsmZKVRdCz5zDvlVQ==15.580329786316610.011.7539766883007073767.012.691089630126953.100.00.0UNF:6:OY27TiaQO+Mf9U+iCiMzmA==1.01.015.5232137673424829.0709.056.029.713681241184773.UNF:6:O/AokwNRifcaKtOJ+mHlKA==Commuting Zone ID, 20001.0.709.0206.65589848698585355.0903.01.0355.8476727785624UNF:6:JEUXOYYEXRgPitjw0Qjn6A==Voting Age Pop.2.27431584E80.0710.0.0.0125382.51397688.7169013999669461.834031502UNF:6:xHqVSNSl/kZnwMIJyTnUcQ==\%, Targeted by Tariffs (April).26.3161468505859381.11833673776541230.206707999110221863.06024171762151240.01.0709.0UNF:6:D6HGpRiIu4uJY6m5cJOdaA==\%, Targeted by Tariffs (by September).1.004482030868530312.722716331481934709.014.26813857478047491.407577514648448.6038380747487631.0UNF:6:c3YgjOZ5WBcwu0Y5eNc8/A==\%, Targeted by Tariffs (by June)0.0709.091.40757751464844.5.6733540158558231.03.0887872232978061.3285259008407593UNF:6:WVMkYhYLw96riXZDGzELBg==\%, Targeted by Tariffs (by August)1.00.03.612259626388555.15794416298440591.40757751464844.709.06.088113307456189UNF:6:NzoN//CpMctcFyt2HuMIag==\%, Protected by US Tariffs (by June)1.00.03.43249287400677827.291818618774414709.0.2.41058444976806643.3986470378930105UNF:6:wpf7qASHJYX4o0sqHPUJlQ==\%, Protected by US Tariffs (by August)4.467522695412327709.00.027.2918186187744141.03.41069507598876954.0275668136849125.UNF:6:D7gAMHjFG2CsetMkv48qpQ==\%, Protected by US Tariffs (by September).12.63899898529052714.2564809509830181.091.407577514648448.700609788592995709.00.9833802580833435UNF:6:pDKnPhTcEtRhTluQe77yNg==$\Delta$ Republican Vote (\%), 18-16692.018.0-4.758255004882812510.71254741024771643.10331726074219.-56.15514373779297-6.740027342228533UNF:6:PJaTK3WKNO2GcTLpt9+vxA==$\Delta$ Republican Vote (\%), 16-1416.062.8068962097168.-39.769405364990234694.03.12144649681508431.230710983276367212.534135930376678UNF:6:3Po7DJHeKZ44EGOe8nrv3w==\%, Female0.00.498238980056534330.031530887160684710.00.5371755361557007710.00.502411425113678.UNF:6:YdJsYyCUPBuUKPqgSQtBsg==\%, White0.00.8962605297565460.83333477740976150.98587816953659060.16188409022091668.710.00.0UNF:6:WypSexciS/pnhFeK9ntkRA==\%, Black.0.00.70437741279602050.0710.00.030348724685609340.086869352006084310.12367207394290737UNF:6:j41s0fkZSObgR7MWTtbr7A==\%, Asian0.42208182811737060.00.019500690506702348.0.00.03491599752973371710.00.009940814226865768UNF:6:8f1uVXEi18LqCpRP8pbsHQ==\%, Native0.098607575597271360.86361342668533330.009498266503214836.0.00.0349367459419408360.0710.0UNF:6:4PzCPA4zUM8GWcVPdXEMpA==\%, Hispanic0.00.11005451706513555.0.053574969992041590.9540696144104004710.00.144394619046767560.0UNF:6:aewX3onOvyy3rH0RsVZmCQ==$\Delta$ Weekly Wage, 18-172.5906165672156205-37.99525070190433.239919662475586.710.00.03.280285189258813.554858207702637UNF:6:2/dsWsG+D27vzW2aD89yrA==\%, Age Group 15.38507843017578112.2633700370788572.01052662381690412.465777298151437.23.1609191894531252.0708.0UNF:6:sfw6dG3wGxpLp6NKpDM1tA==\%, Age Group 212.872722877620985.084236145019531.708.018.9162559509277342.01.47803631327195212.83532428741455UNF:6:NVUb3GWtR3yPf0reeHjtaw==\%, Age Group 3708.02.031.8029861450195312.826214790344238.7.13476800918579113.1633944989597732.867028598708242UNF:6:UWIOUd/gOBdUSY1Uvh7ANg==\%, Age Group 411.8947610855102542.0708.01.4093386976172448.17.23161315917968811.9966357070847375.634201526641846UNF:6:7ODgqIw9WSgZbpSQ7hmNew==\%, Age Group 51.234366211342548611.5854434967041022.011.5200692408502426.625141143798828708.023.49578857421875.UNF:6:bUpCwWnqan2nVPqX7axc1A==\%, Age Group 618.98315238952636713.809076786041267.55585289001464813.6981695890426641.3231378475491362708.02.0.UNF:6:HYJB6t0JLiJcULpOeYCCpA==\%, Age Group 712.342296123504639.708.026.84031677246093812.5048946593440922.31551843713474175.876268386840822.0UNF:6:QTdrGf88JXQBDVQDJlhInQ==\%, Age Group 8708.07.1368217468261722.7785782814025887.2902666946588911.828758841350974317.6387310028076172.0.UNF:6:JkjvJuZQ7Jb3yZCUjtdJUA==HS Code (6-Digit)UNF:6:5yV3bV+zfZ8J16nTn6AN2A==Targeted by China (April)0.0154185022026437110.00.00.12322071485202081.05902.0.0.0UNF:6:qADMHiNJ+2kR3q9nSdfeXQ==Targeted by China (June)0.05902.00.01.00.064723822433074160.24605874829817648.0.0UNF:6:fAd2gmHimUGcsVnnlokXAA==Targeted by China (August)0.00.171968051067494940.01.0.5902.00.00.030498136225008344UNF:6:FiSi4HNeSfyl+A3hXhZ+3A==Targeted by China (September)0.63266689257877915902.00.00.48211915403084077.0.01.01.0UNF:6:ukDpAlvURl3lchjEJNE1pQ==Targeted by China (April-August)0.098441206370727561.00.297935521838991255902.00.00.00.0.UNF:6:tU0bDGl7tD5lOT8ojmcroQ==Targeted by Canada0.0142324635716706965902.00.118457916994276870.00.01.0.0.0UNF:6:1bZr4fPDEHAGeIAqQNKuMA==Targeted by Mexico.0.01.05902.00.1399886211567440.00.019993222636394690.0UNF:6:eWdhFpvxwtRFBGNDDFH2rw==Targeted by the EU1.00.014571331751948321.0.119839231308750110.05902.00.00.0UNF:6:FuwtHVTYybaUPqOtFWRYFQ==Republican Concentration.642.01.6453355783596635E-40.0040080281905829915260.00.023996200955050110.0105338260464089150.2980159819126129UNF:6:3cfH8pN1crIJMhzDH9C9hg==Canada Imports Volume from the US1.6013320192E104.7821549088275954E70.0.3.290357633029155E80.03139757.55902.0UNF:6:jsO3CTHAVj29JwmF118nPQ==China Imports Volume from the US0.0189577.03.185768112324473E8.2.200838946475808E71.8491594752E105902.00.0UNF:6:Qn0L3oMFasj10QHSquP2TQ==EU Imports Volume from the US4.5758148608E10.4.801444198729325E70.06.519095813612646E85902.00.01270822.0UNF:6:sCPSqSxxYT+PBxcIBR4MEg==Mexico Imports Volume from the US0.02.6361844895954365E85902.0776358.03.3429252486614916E70.01.2833427456E10.UNF:6:YWq+t0Kb98a4NaKceBkxrw==Log(Canada Imports Volume from the US)23.4966869354248055902.014.959656238555908.0.00.012.9696275465611835.966259024324567UNF:6:Z0rLQPdEgueerv4VQhJOtQ==Log(China Imports Volume from the US)0.00.023.6405830383300786.5749457751420035.9.9106581005068835902.012.152555465698242UNF:6:I0tDKcNZoY6bOK4PyRY/4A==Log(EU Imports Volume from the US)12.164262799479845.0.06.0226815327632410.05902.024.546636581420914.055174827575684UNF:6:uvrAdwoIUILPkv9REF8xng==Log(Mexico Imports Volume from the US)13.5623693466186525.716002844715817.11.94188187741216123.2753200531005860.05902.00.0UNF:6:QYS1f/81YNxMy7PX90/EMw==Canada Imports Dependence on the US0.32731461204539245188.0.0.46027530085311491.0714.00.00.43900266289711UNF:6:FOi6hqaaWZ32WDzRWdErkw==China Imports Dependence on the US.1576.01.00.203019996982858554326.00.057127725332975390.13677773911055741.1795513010781633E-8UNF:6:pmqMi7GABQ9eYyxGDNPMNg==EU Imports Dependence on the US.0.21338876243120747785.00.152376622845435884.4225814122000884E-80.05821034312248235117.01.0UNF:6:Y+yWsNt4LdcZj6I5lhy8zQ==Mexico Imports Dependence on the US814.05088.00.3410970626804035.1.00.427739199041206160.382098615169525151.2660257198149338E-7UNF:6:4qav/6zXilrT6yJAqAsJBw==StateUNF:6:hivnYx339Zrv8mxfvdzJgw==Tariffs Negative on the US0.0.0.49194949716604391518.01.00.00.409749670619235730.0UNF:6:yfxQclQnAJjtvpbiPRqjPA==Tariffs Negative on Area1518.00.43447885130225220.25230566534914367.1.00.00.00.0UNF:6:9BDhEn0uNLIb1227Gfvwog==Tariffs Negative on Family0.00.189064558629775981.01518.00.00.0.0.3916889309613021UNF:6:8IMn+j2FearSrhy4X5BjLQ==Trump Responsible for Tariff Escalation0.460282295904830441.01.01518.00.69565217391304390.00.0.UNF:6:aaF06T2Nq/byYJtPnCJXOA==GOP Responsible for Tariff Escalation0.457839262187088151.00.00.01518.00.00.4983834862769126.UNF:6:UQlWuHVhHVsH9vSUiKokEg==Dems Responsible for Tariff Escalation.0.00.00.21541501976284591.01518.00.41124542625788950.0UNF:6:NofNJdXGpf6twQ584yCu6Q==County Workers Targeted.0.073115065097808850.530894126892090.002268454730510711518.00.077805920419278860.100504144480223710.0UNF:6:vnrBT6ih2TkiII9TBBF8Zw==County Protected by US Tariffs0.002196069508790970.0.1518.00.098671242456603430.072351906299591040.5305586624145510.07730205784262134UNF:6:buzDKBO/PNAt5tqbQvSvUw==Industry Workers Targeted0.8847948664130304.0.01518.00.178053548876885510.040686232275958170.00.0UNF:6:L2Q0InzmjwNmWM8wJ8EGNg==Party ID (3-Level).2.02.08884150675195461.01407.0111.00.83397572702617643.02Independent4183Democrat5571Republican432UNF:6:Aa5lKStQ1DuFT3nKFoUqRA==Democrat0.00.01.01518.0.0.48212606947519360.36693017127799720.0UNF:6:6gA8L6gux2uz0yHqM4bwnw==Independent0.01518.00.44684387290553645.0.00.00.275362318840579551.0UNF:6:9ggUNCJ64/ghxDZDzSpqhw==Age19.022.045.2874331550802118.1796755887056292.042.01496.0.UNF:6:LBFYgHroZURo3DEPbMpX2g==Female1.01.00.49623146538937471518.00.00.00.5625823451910408.UNF:6:3RaJvI8VPPjOCO1DGrRvTw==Race1.6646903820816861.00.01.01518.05.01.0636709002788118.3Black2125Other442Hispanic1964Asian711White995UNF:6:qNGGoNe6OaEaAhZXnYbe+A==Education3.00.01518.0.6.01.03.4150197628458491.534171857712216Graduate degree1691Less than high school1112High school4414Associate’s degree1463Some college3315BA320UNF:6:RjRX0MQ1TbRN138+UHVNkQ==US Native1.01.0.0.93017127799736481518.00.00.254942126988066560.0UNF:6:tdB8NPi2fAn7YKZHNjuHNA==Employment status1518.02.2529367808020190.08.03.24901185770751.1.02.01Working (paid employee)6272Working (self-employed)1417Not working (other)1278Prefer not to answer244Not working (looking for work)1403Not working (temporary layoff from a job)176Not working (disabled)1215Not working (retired)321UNF:6:+SfTyFBWsQPsUShmF2QKkw==No NAICS Information1.00.00.43741765480895920.01518.00.4962314653893749.0.0UNF:6:ThUXSnKQEA9Fjvog+b4W6g==state_fipsUNF:6:Ux2x5sli/BdveGCBzsySFg==cdUNF:6:TzdfVqCs9d7BM0zoshYBdg==0.00.0.0.00.34489085152000537436.00.137614678899082551.0UNF:6:yXGda4uiN4sw6TgxS7inMA==FIPSUNF:6:xJLC2Y2ASYh0RQflap4y/g==UNF:6:kUXvAJgaLx1/sFp/IKxtBQ==Web Searches on China (Chinese) Tariffs0.083.55.5.13.01526717557252262.00.016.807729353493816UNF:6:lsybl/QYxBBjecUwLdm+UQ==Web Searches on Trade War262.0.30.017.0029305152288540.00.0100.028.893129770992363UNF:6:6p1UN+wuWKvoDBOwtpyxCg==\% Targeted by Chinese tariffs.0.049.996799468994146.0657239320814561.40028727054595959.46005153656005910.761167626344522262.0UNF:6:VMKRK5Fi8ij8FLDArFt97Q==\% Bachelor's degree4.52002605604948650.017.51297709923664262.09.217.5.31.8UNF:6:ppZVhmgRNIFc0QWZhD6+iA==\% Graduate or professional degree9.83.8403749257913933.6262.010.3080152671755730.0.24.4UNF:6:SxlsvxnAGqlgQi4R7OZJsQ==01_main.doapplication/x-stata-syntax02_map_figures.Rtype/x-r-syntax03_appendix.doapplication/x-stata-syntaxcb_2017_us_cd115_500k.dbfapplication/dbfcb_2017_us_cd115_500k.shpapplication/shpcb_2017_us_cd115_500k.shxapplication/shxcb_2017_us_county_500k.dbfapplication/dbfcb_2017_us_county_500k.shpapplication/shpcb_2017_us_county_500k.shxapplication/shxReadMe.pdfapplication/pdf