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Building on prior information effects research in political science, we argue that the extent to which voters are informed about politically relevant issues is a key factor in evaluating whether any particular result accurately reflects an electorate’s collective “will.” By applying counterfactual modeling to British Election Study data collected after the referendum (N=2,067), we estimate that support for leaving the EU would have dropped by up to 10 percentage points, had voters been more fully informed. More generally, we suggest that such modeling exercises—accompanied by transparent theoretical assumptions to enable stress-testing under different conditions—provide diagnostic tools for assessing the sensitivity of electoral outcomes to varying levels of information, and therefore offer relevant insight as to whether they truly capture the “will of the people.”"},"author":{"citation:authorName":"Ahlstrom-Vij, Kristoffer","citation:authorAffiliation":"Birkbeck, University of London","authorIdentifierScheme":"ORCID","authorIdentifier":"0000-0003-1081-3171"},"citation:datasetContact":[{"citation:datasetContactName":"Ahlstrom-Vij, Kristoffer","citation:datasetContactAffiliation":"Birkbeck, University of London","citation:datasetContactEmail":"ahlstromvij@gmail.com"},{"citation:datasetContactName":"Allen, William","citation:datasetContactAffiliation":"Nuffield College, University of Oxford","citation:datasetContactEmail":"william.allen@politics.ox.ac.uk"}],"citation:depositor":"Ahlstrom-Vij, Kristoffer","dateOfDeposit":"2023-04-28","citation:notesText":"In addition to the data files available here, in order to replicate the analysis, one needs to register for British Election Study data access, download the original SAV file from www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-object/2017-face-to-face/, and add this one to the /data folder, along with the other data files.","title":"Replication Data for: As We Like It: Did the UK’s 2016 EU Referendum Reveal the “Will of the People?”","subject":"Social Sciences","@id":"https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/Y06T2Y","@type":["ore:Aggregation","schema:Dataset"],"schema:version":"1.0","schema:name":"Replication Data for: As We Like It: Did the UK’s 2016 EU Referendum Reveal the “Will of the People?”","schema:dateModified":"2023-06-05 21:44:06.558","schema:datePublished":"2023-06-05","schema:license":"http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0","dvcore:fileTermsOfAccess":{"dvcore:fileRequestAccess":true},"schema:includedInDataCatalog":"Harvard Dataverse","schema:isPartOf":{"schema:name":"PS: Political Science & Politics","@id":"https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/ps","schema:description":"<i>PS: Political Science & Politics</i> provides critical analyses of contemporary political phenomena and is the journal of record for the discipline of political science reporting on research, teaching, and professional development. <i>PS</i>, begun in 1968, is the only quarterly professional news and commentary journal in the field and is the prime source of information on political scientists' achievements and professional concerns.","schema:isPartOf":{"schema:name":"Harvard Dataverse","@id":"https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/harvard","schema:description":"<span><span><span><h3>Share, archive, and get credit for your data. 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