10.7910/DVN/Z731ON Dausgaard, Christoffer Hentzer Christoffer Hentzer Dausgaard University of Copenhagen Hjorth, Frederik Frederik Hjorth https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4063-4983 University of Copenhagen Harvard Dataverse 2026 Social Sciences Dausgaard, Christoffer Hentzer Christoffer Hentzer Dausgaard University of Copenhagen 2025-12-18 2026-03-08 17230 6947 268761549 4386 12624 763 10518191 1375349675 195809 3870601 534 3194986 13797 15669214 22958854 1822710 283938 6632387 555 18485440 2172 3356360 43093723 46752 type/x-r-syntax text/plain application/octet-stream text/plain type/x-r-syntax text/plain text/tab-separated-values application/octet-stream application/octet-stream text/tab-separated-values text/plain text/tab-separated-values application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet application/x-stata text/tab-separated-values text/tab-separated-values application/octet-stream text/tab-separated-values text/plain application/octet-stream text/plain application/octet-stream application/octet-stream type/x-r-syntax 1.0 Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication. Parties' linkages to social groups are key to electoral competition. While traditionally explained in terms of long-standing social cleavages, newer theories assign some role to parties in shaping group linkages. We argue that party elites have even more influence over group linkages than afforded in existing accounts: citizens infer group linkages from `running tallies' of recent group appeals in elite rhetoric. To test this theory, we develop a novel automated approach that uses language models to measure group appeals observationally. Using data from the UK, we connect citizens' perceived group linkages in surveys to group appeals in parliamentary speech spanning three decades. We find that group linkages robustly track party elites' rhetoric. The association is strongest for group appeals with policy content and among recent news media consumers. Our findings imply that party elites have considerable power to shape group linkages, even in the short run.