10.7910/DVN/HBL8GT
Mongrain, Philippe
Philippe
Mongrain
Vox Pop Labs
Kuraishi, Anam
Anam
Kuraishi
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3222-807X
Lahore University of Management Sciences
Soontjens, Karolin
Karolin
Soontjens
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4615-510X
University of Antwerp
Walgrave, Stefaan
Stefaan
Walgrave
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1814-1015
University of Antwerp
Replication Materials for: Wishful Thinking in Mass–Elite Electoral Expectations
Harvard Dataverse
2026
Social Sciences
Mongrain, Philippe
Philippe
Mongrain
2026-01-30
2026-02-04
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Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication.
This study explores politicians' expectations of future election outcomes, the accuracy of these predictions, and the role of wishful thinking in shaping such electoral estimations. Before the 2024 regional elections in Belgium, local politicians were surveyed to gather their views on the likelihood of regional political parties winning or losing seats, as well as the probability of these parties being part of the next government coalition. To benchmark politicians' predictions and the accuracy thereof, similar survey evidence was collected among citizens in a parallel survey. Our findings reveal that both politicians and citizens are strongly influenced in their electoral predictions by wishful thinking, often leading them to overestimate the likelihood of favourable outcomes for their preferred party. Interestingly, we found almost no difference in how partisan identities shaped expectations and the accuracy of forecasts between these two groups. This suggests that even politicians, whose roles often require them to be more strategically attuned to electoral dynamics, are just as susceptible to cognitive biases as the general public.